This awards season has given a pretty firm indicator as to who will take the big prize, albite a few categories. To date, Everything Everywhere All At Once has taken the DGA, the PGA, the WGA, and SAG Awards. If it takes best picture (and our 2023 Oscar predictions say it will), it’ll be among No Country for Old Men, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, and Argo to have also done so.

Other categories, as our 2023 Oscar predictions suggest, are not as certain: the supporting actress category has been ebbing and flowing between Angela Bassett (who took home the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards), Kerry Condon (who took home the BAFTA), and Jamie Lee Curtis (who took home the SAG). And the lead actress category, just as uncertain – while Cate Blanchett took the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, Michelle Yeoh took the Critics Choice and the SAG, the first time this race has done so since 1998.

Meanwhile, the adapted screenplay race is also split, as Sarah Polley’s Women Talking took home the WGA and the prestigious USC Scripter Awards, all while All Quiet on the Western Front was absent from those categories but managed to take home the BAFTA.

And so, while the outlets every year say, “Oh this is the most unpredictable awards season yet,” this year has been a little more transparent, but the uncertain categories are still ones to watch for surprises. Here are our 2023 Oscar predictions:

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2023 Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE

All Quiet on the Western Front 
Avatar: The Way of Water 
The Banshees of Inisherin 
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR

The Banshees of Inisherin — Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Steven Spielberg
Tár — Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Ruben Östlund

BEST ACTOR

Austin Butler in Elvis
Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser in The Whale
Paul Mescal in Aftersun
Bill Nighy in Living

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett in Tár
Ana de Armas in Blonde
Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie
Michelle Williams in The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Brendan Gleeson in The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry in Causeway
Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan in The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Angela Bassett in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau in The Whale
Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Banshees of Inisherin — Written by Martin McDonagh
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
The Fabelmans — Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
Tár — Written by Todd Field
Triangle of Sadness — Written by Ruben Östlund

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All Quiet on the Western Front — Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery — Written by Rian Johnson
Living — Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
Top Gun: Maverick — Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
Women Talking — Screenplay by Sarah Polley

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

All Quiet on the Western Front — Germany
Argentina, 1985 — Argentina
Close — Belgium
EO — Poland
The Quiet Girl — Ireland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio 
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On 
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish 
The Sea Beast 
Turning Red 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

All That Breathes 
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed 
Fire of Love 
A House Made of Splinters 
Navalny 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

All Quiet on the Western Front — Volker Bertelmann
Babylon — Justin Hurwitz
The Banshees of Inisherin — Carter Burwell
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Son Lux
The Fabelmans — John Williams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

All Quiet on the Western Front — James Friend
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths — Darius Khondji
Elvis — Mandy Walker
Empire of Light — Roger Deakins
Tár — Florian Hoffmeister

BEST EDITING

The Banshees of Inisherin — Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Elvis — Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Paul Rogers
Tár — Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick — Eddie Hamilton

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Babylon — Mary Zophres
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Ruth Carter
Elvis — Catherine Martin
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Shirley Kurata
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris — Jenny Beavan

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

All Quiet on the Western Front — Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
Avatar: The Way of Water — Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
Babylon — Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Elvis — Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
The Fabelmans — Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

All Quiet on the Western Front — Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová
The Batman — Naomi Donne, Mike Marino and Mike Fontaine
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Camille Friend and Joel Harlow
Elvis — Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
The Whale — Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

All Quiet on the Western Front — Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
Avatar: The Way of Water — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
The Batman — Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever — Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
Top Gun: Maverick — Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher

BEST SOUND

All Quiet on the Western Front — Viktor Prásil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
Avatar: The Way of Water — Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers and Michael Hedges
The Batman — Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray and Andy Nelson
Elvis — David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson and Michael Keller
Top Gun: Maverick — Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

“An Irish Goodbye” — Tom Berkeley and Ross White
“Ivalu” — Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan
“Le Pupille” — Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón
“Night Ride” — Eirik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larssen
“The Red Suitcase” — Cyrus Neshvad

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse” — Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud
“The Flying Sailor” — Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
“Ice Merchants” — João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano
“My Year of Dicks” — Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon
“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It” — Lachlan Pendragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

“The Elephant Whisperers” — Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga
“Haulout” — Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev
“How Do You Measure a Year?” — Jay Rosenblatt
“The Martha Mitchell Effect” — Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison
“Stranger at the Gate” — Joshua Seftel and Conall Jones

Featured image: Shutterstock/LanKS